Thursday, July 20, 2006

Bounce over already?

I thought today would be a slightly up day instead of the down day it became. We had some up time in the morning, but now we appear to be back on track with the downward spiral the markets have been following. Yesterday's correction was the result of an oversold condition from the previous 3 days. But today's behavior implies that yesterday's correction may have been overdone as well.

Frankly, I think it all points to the common signals these days that investors/traders are very jittery in all markets, countries, and currencies. People aren't letting gains & losses spread too far before they take their money back off the table. I have no idea which way the market might go tomorrow, although I'm suspecting a down day. The indicators that I watch remind me of the instruments on an aircraft panel: they're more accurate when you're cruising. But when you start changing directions, or you're decending slowly in a nose-high attitude (like when you're landing), the instruments get less accurate as the air flow is no longer flowing smoothly into the pitot tube.

Right now, I feel like the market pulled up a little too hard and is going through a bit of a "stall". And the only way to recover from a stall is to get the nose back down...

I'm short across the board: KEA, VOL, LCRD, & MAT. I've been waiting 3 days to short MAT, but it looks like I should have waited only 2 since I couldn't watch it all day. I might drop the VOL in exchange for one or some of the recent movers: AVCI, RIMG (go short), & MOGN (go long).

BERYL: My house is in Florida, my job is in Connecticut. I can't get away from these hurricanes! But I'd rather be here than on the West Coast. Nothing personal, East Coast is just home.

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