Time For Change

I'm going to start posting at SharePlanner.com. They already have membership and a good forum started, so I expect to get more feedback from my posts. You can find me listed as, "Edgy".

Click here to jump.

Weekly Technical Analysis

I've been looking at some mutual funds for a buddy at work. I figured I might as well post them for the sake of keeping up with this blog.

In short, this week looks like it's setting up to be flat or down for the big Indices. But the POMO has proven me wrong over and over again.

Wass Happenin?

I'm already stopped-out of ANH, and just got in NTRZ.

KKD is looking good, and the indices already did a headfake this morning.

Here's to an even lower-volume Christmas rally!!!

Crash Course

I recently discovered Chris Martensen's Crash Course lecture series. Here's an excellent explanation on how the Fed creates money:

Actual News Event Mistaken for Onion Video

I was watching the following video at work when my neighbor asked me if this was another Onion News Video. I don't know if that's more scary than the news itself! This news clip reminds me of the beginning of some of those movies where they would show the news footage back "before it all happened", if you know what I mean.

I couldn't get the video to embed, so CLICK HERE FOR VIDEO. It's the one about the mysterious missile launch off California last night.

Commodities were rocking this morning, looks kinda like they hit the tipping point. In honor of the oncoming Christmas spirit, I submit the following:

Kicking and Screaming

Can you spot the differences between the two images below?

I have never seen so many long-tail doji days all together like that, with decreasing volume to boot! This Market is hellbent on indecision, and is going to have to be dragged into making a decision, up or down.

I'd say they just "pulled a Congress", referring to the guys who just refused to pass a Budget before adjourning for Election Season, because they didn't want it to influence voters. Just like the conspiracy theorists (who are probably right) say that the Fed has been pumping the Indices in advance of Elections to boost the incumbants' chances. Looks like it's a fat chance now, and the excuse for this relentless melt-up is now due to frontrunning of QE II: The Wrath of Tim (Geitner).

I'm STILL short, and at a loss. Right now, I feel like quite the dumbass as I look at my P&L. But, since we're still flatlining in Index prices, I don't see any reason to pull out just yet. I've got a feeling that I'll get that climactic release by the end of this week, and I'll know if I'm smarter or dumber-er.

Is this all on the UUP and UUP?

So, I was looking at the blog and how often I have NOT been posting the past year. It's been very stressful with the combination of market ups and downs, President Obama and Congress officially cancelling my job, the Constellation Program, and the passing of my dear grandmother.

I come across a year-old chart of UUP that I posted, and almost thought that I was looking at today's chart! We're back to the same price levels, and the past year's data looked strikingly similar. I pulled up the current chart, marked up both for comparison, and posted below.

THEN:

I see a VERY DIFFERENT setup in today's action. Last year, there was a well-defined trendline that was eventually broken with supporting info from the indicators. There's a lot of up-pointing arrows on this first chart, showing positive divergence.

NOW:

Today's chart shows a year of much more wild behavior. While a similar trendline is respected, the other indicators aren't really giving any signals, all except volume. Volume is supporting hope for a bottoming out and reversal. We still need to penetrate (huh huh) that trendline, though. It's like a squished version of the first chart, more caffeinated and energetic. Another good sign is that price has gone above the 20-day MA. Let's see if it can cross the 50-MA.

Remember that this is an ETF that follows the Dollar Index. The whole world is in play here, and this is a simplified version of where the US is related to everyone else.

Another thing I noticed, Stockcharts.com has added price tags to the right side of their free charts in the past year. Sweet.