Thursday, October 08, 2009

Still Bearish at 30,000 ft

Good rally today, but this SPY chart feeds my pessimism. Looks like S&P resistance is around 1070, low support around 970. But I'll respect a breakout.

I'm still overall Bearish. Pro's on Bloomberg are saying with confidence, "the Recession IS over!" What bothers me is that volume has been falling since the beginning of the year, and long before this recovery started...until now. Volume is climbing on negative movement in this recent downward push.

It's hard not to get emotional, as there's still that feeling that the fundamentals haven't improved yet. I must give credit to the Feds for trying to lubricate the Markets again, but I think the effort is fading. The commercial real estate shoe to drop is looming, and it appears that foreclosure and short-sale buying is meager. Meanwhile, the Dollar is falling which I theorize is partially to blame for the rise in all Dollar-denominated products: stocks, bonds, oil, gold, McDonalds....

Which reminds me, it's Monopoly time at the Golden Arches. Here's to Crack Fries!

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