Wednesday, September 09, 2009

Nothing Posted in Weeks

What? Nothing to say for weeks at a time? But of course!

I have a job, you know!

It's been 6 months since the triple-6 bottom, so where are we now?

Remember when we had a rising wedge back in May/June and we thought that the rally would finally end? Bought FAZ and lost more money? Yeah, I remember now. It appears that this was a smaller wedge within a larger wedge that should be nearing breakout soon. With the smaller wedge, we got "sideways action" back to a nice, 23.6% Fib retracement from the Oct, 2007 high to the March low.

I'm thinking we won't see much excitement from this next correction. We're flirting with the 38.2% retrace level (1014), and we might not drop below that. If we do, however, the next best choice to me seems to be back to the 23.6% level at 881. But if this wedge wants to freak us out and retrace to its own 50%, then we could bottom around 851.

Whatever happens, RSI has negative divergence so it's gonna go down before it pops up!

Meanwhile, I'm still trying to figure what to make of Treasuries. The Fed is flooding the auctions with new paper, but it appears that there are still buyers out there. I thought China & friends had their fill of our debt. So who's buying??? And how will this affect all this corporate paper that every one's been hyping for a few months now? Can you say, 'bubble?'

Creeping inflation can't hide anymore; millage rates have gone up to compensate for the lack of taxes coming from all the empty homes in foreclosure. Rates for electricity and natural gas have been officially hiked, and more permanent 'transportation/energy costs' have snuck their way into invoices for everything from pizza delivery to hotel rooms.

On the bright side, I hope Americans will start to lose weight with all the reduced sizes of the portions inside every package at the grocery store. Oh sure, the package is still the same size or made to appear the same size, but we're getting less per ounce, while the price stays flat. We're getting closer to par with the rest of the underprivileged world. So I don't want to hear any more complaining from over the wall, ya hear?

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