Friday, May 26, 2006

Thought for the extended weekend

The real estate doomsday prophets were out in 2003. Now they seem to be resurfacing in greater numbers to say that we're even closer, because cracks are starting to show. Sounds like a basic case of, "I told you so" going around.

So, let's say housing is going down. Commodities are in full Boom, with the Bulls predicting 4 to 6 more years of rising prices in gold, oil, zinc, copper, uranium, etc... Then there's the undercurrent of talk that the Fed will lead us back to a recession with its full-speed money printing & interest rates. I've been listening to Wall Street gripe about how the Fed has overstepped its bounds by raising rates too high, too fast since a year ago.

That's the way I see the Big Picture right now. My question is this: where's the next Bull market? Perhaps I've missed the commodities boom, or maybe there's still time. But, where is today's beaten-down value that is waiting to burst in to 2,000%+ gains like metals did recently? As it happens, Jim Cramer right now is saying to look at "secular growth stocks", or cyclicals (but it's a rerun! I saw copyright 2005 at the end). Cyclicals will follow the economy... but isn't the economy teetering on trouble?

Where's an amateur to put his money right now???

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