Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Playing Ketchup, & Many Mad Ravings.

First I had overtime for a couple of weeks in a row, then I got sick with a fever and a wicked cough. The fever left but the cough wouldn't. The doctor said it was "Walking Pneumonia" and gave me some antibiotics. I still have the cough and have been back at work for a week, but everyone avoids being around me. Heh, don't blame 'em, something's been going around.

All this time, I have been out of the markets and research. I even put down my copy of All About Technical Analysis by Constance Brown and read Harry Potter 6 & 7 instead during my time out. Today I spent some time doing some research, and I see I've missed a few more swings in the Markets. I'm going to try to tune-out the news once again and look purely at the price action.

I tried something I hadn't really done yet; I used ThinkorSwim's platform to do a pattern search using criteria to look for low-price stocks with decent volume, max 30 hits. I went through those 30 stocks to see if I could spot anything worthwhile. Here's my notes for the watch list I came up with, I'm bullish on all, but I expect some consolidation first on some.

AMD: Riding up-channel support (sppt) ~3.56 (buy target if all goes well)
CHDX: Rising wedge to 14.35, sppt ~12.64
AEA: Showing acceleration back to 5.80
ZIXI: Rising wedge to 1.80, buy ~1.63
DYN: .05 below 200MA, watch for crossover/breakout
PVX: Short-term bull flag, watch for bounce around 4.74
MCGC: May be about to enter consolidation around 3.00
CY: Been riding higher, get on it if continuing
KLIC: Just hit resistance (rst) at ~5.00, watch for breakout
MCCC: May retest sppt ~4.48, bullish
MGAM: In bullish flag, sppt ~5.39
AFFX: Just popped up, watch for flag & rebounce
OMX: Just passed daily dbl btm, consolidate then uptrend
CCO: 200MA @4.75, watch for pullbacks to buy
HCF: Strong uptrend, approaching 200MA of 5.25
TER: Due for pullback, sppt ~7.00/7.30
OPWV: Buy dips ~2.65, watch for 2nd breakout
PESI: Rising wedge to 2.72, sppt ~2.42
ARQL: Breaking out NOW, rst ~6.35
HGG: Entering consolidation, spt ~17.00

I'll be referring to these notes while I check on the watchlist to see which ones to follow, and I usually have no more than 5 holding at a time. I'm not going to post 20 charts tonight because I don't really see the need at this time. I might post charts of my trades later.

Also, I see S&P 500 reaching for 1050 right now, possibly 1080. It needs to get past resistance around 983. I am, unfortunately, biased from listening to Bloomberg Surveillance and reading Ritholtz (The Big Picture). I believe that this rally is government funded with money that doesn't exist (yet). China is concerned about our credit rating as we have promised unprecedented sums of cash to float the economy internally. But the Dollar is spiraling, as it looks about to fall through the floor and plummet. I am VERY concerned about the immediate future of this country, and continue to fear that this rally is built on sand, not stone.

A few months back I predicted that we're going to slowly come back to S&P 1600 around late 2013, before we crash even farther for a third and final time of this Secular Bear market. I still hold to that, but I'm not sure how the "recovery" is going to look until then. It looks like the S&P is going to hit major resistance in October, and I'm concerned which way it will go. I've got an itching suspicion that we'll break resistance just enough to turn around and fall through again. The chart tells me that this "rally" is still just a recovery from an oversold condition that went from Sept 2008 to March 2009. And my news-watching bias tells me that we have not corrected enough.

This is because I'm still seeing way too much f*ckery going on in the corner office AND the government from the city to the county, state, and federal levels! When the guys in charge realize that raising prices/taxes isn't working, THEN we'll see the final stages of this big correction.

On a personal note, my neighbor just moved out last weekend. He was complaining of his mortgage and the mortgage on a rental property he's had for several years. The other property has been empty and for sale for 6 months now. He now lives in another rental at a rather nice fly-in community up the road, and I asked him how he'll handle two mortgage payments and a rent payment. I didn't really get an answer, and I'm thinking he's going to walk away from the house next door if he can't pull off even a short sale. That would be too bad, the house right across from him is a foreclosure and has been sitting empty for 2 years now. Lately, people have been coming by weekly to check it out, but no buyers yet.

I also found out that Zillow.com says my house is now a few grand less than what I paid for it back in 2004. As long as I can keep my day-job we'll be alright. Here's hoping Obama doesn't cancel the Constellation Program (wince)!

Don't those people realize that it's us 'citizens' that fund this whole economy??? I think they do, just enough to B.S. us while they help themselves. D@mn, I'm freakin' cynical!

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